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Showing posts with label Delegates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Delegates. Show all posts

Saturday, April 16, 2016

You Can’t Always Get What You Want…Editorial, The Week in Review – Analysis, Commentary, Opinion

04.16.2016

You Can’t Always Get What You Want…

As I have been watching the campaign this week, the campaign for the nomination of the Democratic Party for president; I have been reminded of the chorus from the classic Rolling Stones song.

You can’t always get what you want…But you get what you need

The message coming from the Sander’s campaign is that they will not stop. They will carry through; into the convention. They are not going to suspend, and they may not put forward any effort to bring the support they have garnered among their young and independent minded voters, into the fold of the Democratic Party.

It remains a mathematical possibility for BS to win, but it is virtually certain that he will lose to HRC, and I think this is a good thing. The comportment of the Sander’s campaign, over the last couple of weeks, has been atrocious; rude, divisive.

BS is losing to HRC by significant margins in every measure; by millions of votes, by hundreds of pledged delegates, by virtually all of the super delegates, whose votes could sway the election one way or the other.

Now with his impending loss in New York, BS has begun to put forward the notion that he will carry out a fight for the nomination on the convention floor, regardless of the fact that he will have earned fewer votes, and earned fewer pledged delegates. He is going to try to sway enough of the super delegates to join his “movement” in order to thwart HRC from becoming the nominee. Even though it is clear that democratic voters prefer her to him.

BS does not want to hear that. He has in recent days put forward the notion that the victories of the Clinton campaign in the “Deep South” are irrelevant on account of the fact that they are “Red States” and much more conservative than the states he has won.

I disagree, but there is more than just my opinion v. the opinion of BS in this question. I would suggest that states like; Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, all of which gave victories to BS, these states are not less conservative than Mississippi, South Carolina, Alabama etc.. They are all red states; “Deep Red.” That is my opinion, but what is fact is this: of the states that have already held their primaries and caucuses, of those states that voted for President Obama twice; in 2008, and 2012, HRC has won the majority of votes in those states, by a million or more.
Senator Sanders has great ideas, and sound values. He is good on the stump, but he is a terrible candidate, and would be a worse president.

It was shameful for his campaign to give their stage to a supporter who called Secretary Clinton a “corporate whore.” I was ashamed of BS all last week when he mocked HRC repeatedly in his speeches, claiming that she was “getting nervous.” Over and over again, BS himself used this line; “Hillary is getting nervous…she is getting nervous.” When in reality there was no indication of that at all. But HRC is a woman right? And that is what women do right? Women get nervous in the face of a strong man…right?

Wrong! Bernie Sanders does not make Hillary Clinton nervous at all.

BS does not have the appropriate command of the facts, or the temperament to be president.
His lack of policy details was made evident in the past couple of weeks through the interviews he gave, which clearly demonstrate that he has not thought through the practical realities of his dreams. I am not saying that he could not command those facts, I am merely saying that he has not yet bothered to pay the kind of attention to those details, which his ambitions demand. And that is not a formula for success, either on the campaign trail or in the White House.

In the debate this week he showed his poor temperament. While he condemned his supporter who called Hillary a whore, he continued to suggest that she was in fact for sale, and yet when pressed on the specifics he could not rise to the occasion and give any details. His responses were sarcastic, sophomoric, and unworthy of a person seeking the office which he aspires to. He was smug, and chuckling when the issue of gun violence was brought up in the debate. Again, a performance unworthy of the office he aspires to.

The missteps, and miscalculations that BS made on the campaign trail this week were too many to enumerate here. Let me just say this to any of you who may be inclined to support him. I am with you, insofar as I want many, most of the things he wants for our country, but Senator Sanders is not the person to take us there, Secretary Clinton is.


You can’t always get the candidate you want…but if we hold together in solidarity on the left, we will get the candidate we need. 

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Momentum is Not a Rationale for Governing - Editorial, The Week in Review – Analysis, Commentary, Opinion

04.09.2016

Momentum is Not a Rationale for Governing

I have been hearing this argument since January, but over the last couple of weeks it has gotten increasingly more passionate. The argument has two prongs, and it is this:

Bernie Sanders has the momentum
Bernie Sanders leads the republicans by wider margins than Hillary Clinton in the survey polls
Bernie Sanders can win
Vote for Bernie Sanders

This is not a policy discussion. This is not a debate about substantive issues, this is BS.

Momentum:

BS has legitimate energy and enthusiasm behind his political campaign, there is no denying that. So does HRC. Over the course of the campaign they have each had moments where they were surging and winning contests by large percentages.

If you were to look at a single segment of the race, and focus only on a single upswing for a given candidate you could make that argument with equal validity for either one.

If you were to look at the arc of momentum over the whole race (up until now, this could change over future contests), you have would have to conclude that the inertia belongs to HRC. The enthusiasm of the voters for her candidacy has yielded more statewide victories, the support of more pledged delegates, and 2.5 million more votes.

The momentum in the campaign belongs to HRC (at the moment), regardless of the fact that her numbers appear to be in a trough at this time. She will likely peak again very soon. The inertia is hers, and the BS campaign appears to less and less of a movement that stands on its own and more of thing that simply drags at HRC campaign’s numbers.

Demographic Polls:

For several weeks I have heard BS on the stump touting the fact that he leads all of the republican candidates in the demographic polls. Based on this he says that you should nominate him.

HRC beats the republican candidates as well, also by wide margins (though they are smaller).

While this kind of data is important, and it is important for campaigns to track; at this moment in the race it is not in the slightest way an argument for electability. This is a bait and switch. The polls will change, all reputable pollsters agree. The margins of both candidates over their republican opponents will shrink, at times it may disappear completely, or hover around the margin of error. That is normal in a campaign cycle.

These arguments are never arguments for electability, they can only be arguments for or against the probability of victory; probabilities which are always in flux.

Furthermore, this is the exact same argument as Donald Trump makes in his speeches, and it is unworthy of a serious politician. BS should stop.

This is the case:

Both Senator Sanders, and Secretary Clinton can win. They both have great momentum. Bernie has fantastic rallies, Hillary has earned more votes than any candidate in the race (from either party). The enthusiasm of their supporters looks different from one to the other, but it is real. In the end, whoever wins will need the support of the other

I hope that whoever is nominated by the democratic party will get your vote. Either of them would be better than any of the republicans, just as the Democratic Party agenda is better for the America people than the Republican Party agenda.


Let us quit talk about momentum, and wave frequency. Let us start talking public policy and get down to meaning full discussion of how we are going to pull this off.

Saturday, March 19, 2016

Berning it Down - Editorial, The Week in Review – Analysis, Commentary, Opinion

03.19.2016

Berning it Down

There was a subtle shift in the Sander’s campaign this week; as he continues in his quest for Democratic Party’s nomination for President. I found it troubling, and a little bit amusing, but mostly worrisome, and befuddling.

BS lost every contest on Tuesday. His campaign spent a lot of resources, and they believed they would win at least one of the contests, if not two, and they were hopeful that they could make it three.
In two of the contests; Missouri and Illinois the margin was razor thin; virtually tied, but he lost. HRC won Ohio by a by a larger margin, but it was still relatively close. However, she blew the Sander’s campaign out of the water in North Carolina and Florida.

HRC expanded her lead in the contest for delegates in a significant way, I am speaking of pledged delegates, votes that are committed to HRC.

The Clinton campaign holds a commanding lead; something like 95% of the un-pledged, “super-delegates.” Making her path to victory almost guaranteed. BS has complained bitterly about this through the contest so far; stating over and over again that if HRC only wins because of the votes of super-delegates her victory would be un-democratic and illegitimate.

This line of reason has been vociferously echoed by the BS supporters all over the Web and throughout social-media. Only now, now that his path to victory has become extremely dubious; BS has begun to suggest that he might continue his campaign all the way to the convention even if he arrives there without a majority of pledged delegates, and try to convince the super-delegates to make him the nominee anyway; in what his campaign has already called an un-democratic and illegitimate way.

I am amused by this because it speaks directly against the holier than thou, I am not a regular politician image that the BS campaign has successfully foisted on the public imagination. The amusement can only go so far because such a path risks fracturing the democratic party just at the point when it needs to be unified.

This troubles me because it is a concrete foreshadowing of what I have been asking my friends, who are BS supporters to think about; my estimation that BS would gladly tear down the party jut for a chance to win an argument. That is the kind of guy he seems to be.

Mind you, I am not saying he would tear down the party just to win an argument; he would tear it down just for a chance to win, and jeopardize any possibility of advancing the progressive agenda that he claims to care so much about.

People, who are fans of BS have made a lot of noise about the notion that the Senator is untouched by political corruption. I challenge that notion on the basis that, people can be greedy for other things than money. Human beings are corrupted by their desires, and as the Buddha says, desire is the cause of all suffering. Desire causes suffering both from within and without. Our own desires cause us to suffer, and the desires of others inflict suffering on those around them.

Most people desire mundane things, material things; they are greedy for wealth, privilege, power. Some people however, have more intractable desires, more difficult for us to understand, not as easy to put our finger on, like; purity, righteousness, rightness. I contend that we have more to fear from those who crave these things than we do the other.

I ask you to think about this in the coming weeks as the BS campaign continues its rhetoric about the super-delegates, condemning HRC out of one side of their mouths for stacking the deck with these pledges at the outset of the contest, and out of the other side of their mouths giving us their strategy to capitalize on the same. While threatening to Bern down the party in the process.